Syria and Beyond

This started out as a post in the Fortress, then decided to make it free as I build out the new website. If you’re already subscribed, you don’t need to do anything, I’m going to get everyone moved over as I keep building this out.

Recognize when I am wrong

I wanted to wait a bit for the dust and my emotions to settle as I read and thought about what we’re seeing in Syria. If you would have asked me if I thought the Syrian Army would give up Syria with almost no fight after they determinedly fought for over a decade, I would have have said no chance. If you then said and it’s going to happen in two weeks, I would have put money against it, and been wrong.

As wrong as when I didn’t think Russia would invade Ukraine. It wasn’t until I ran into a friend a couple years ago in Georgetown, who is now in the Caucuses, and he told me they were assembling casualty collection points on the border that I thought they might actually go for it. I didn’t think Russia would do it because of the pain of absolute sanctions the US and western Europe would level at them. But I was wrong, the Russians were willing to make the sacrifice and they are winning.

Events in Syria have also contributed to me looking back and realizing how wrong I was when I wrote this in 2021,

“I’ve been overseas a lot of years, and I have been in situations where someone desperately needed my help and I couldn’t help them. I don’t want to be in that situation holding bitcoin with the world tearing itself apart because the dollar is losing as the world trade currency and US hegemony is pulling back to the western hemisphere leaving everyone else to fend for themselves. The 8 billion people on the planet can’t make it without us.”

I read that now and just think I was naive. Being gone on near constant TDY’s for the last two years, everywhere from Ukraine to Haiti, seeing things at the ground level that clearly don’t match what people I previously respected continue to say publicly on needing to defend the US-led Rules Based Order (RBO), combined with how we and those we are supposedly helping are treated by the western Professional Managerial Caste (PMC) that are in charge of this RBO has led me to the exact opposite view now.

Syria is just the latest example of how out of touch with reality the PMC is for reasons we’ll discuss. As I’ve thought about what we are seeing, the only logical conclusion for someone like me on the ground is to say the best thing the west could do is to stop trying to help people. There is never any accountability or responsibility for the horrible results of what we are doing. In an effort to be less naive, I don’t think that will happen since it would require the PMC to adjust their world view and ideology.

The point of this piece is not to solely focus on being wrong, but to think about what I can do personally to protect myself and those I care about - to be clear there is no change in what I am doing for investments - simply trying to be more clear minded.

As the PMC puts a former ISIS leader on the same side as us, showing an entire generation of veterans the wars they were sent us to fight meant nothing, our sacrifices meaningless as our enemies are now embraced as partners for democracy, I don’t think a solution lies in the center.

The PMC will fall apart under the weight of it’s own incompetence, or we transition from our current managed capitalist societies in the west, dispense with any pretense to democracy, and embrace national capitalism and something that more resembles empire where the PMC continues to rule more directly.

If you are unfamiliar with the PMC, will refer you to Aurelien’s excellent work on the subject:

“[The PMC are a] caste for which nothing is ever completely real, much of life is a game or a mathematical model, or a series of numbers in a report, and where you can always abandon things when they go wrong, and start again. As a caste, they are  fundamentally frivolous, no matter how seriously they take themselves, and, like children, they never want to take responsibility or blame for anything. Their caste is protected not just by money (it includes poorly-paid university lecturers for example) but also by a strong ideological discipline, by bonds of education, experience, professional cooperation and even family. It closes ranks instinctively against people like you and me.

The PMC can only think normatively, and in abstract, left-brain terms. Ukraine is winning because reasons. If Ukraine is not winning, that would imply that the normative ideas that guide the PMC must be wrong, and that is impossible. So Ukraine must be wining. More importantly, Russia must be losing, and any force that makes that possible, including macho men with Nazi tattoos, needs to be supported. Because this caste lives in a world where discourse is the only reality, as they learned somewhere at university, can’t quite remember the details, they’ve grown up with the idea that control of discourse means control of reality. Repeat after me, these are not Nazi tattoos. When the truth is too painful to handle, you try to cancel it, and if that doesn’t work you find a safe space somewhere. The problem is that, whilst this approach can work in a system, such as a university, where you have total practical control, it can’t work when the real world comes knocking at your door, and you have to do something.”

Syria Summary

US and western Europe is mad Russia is winning in Ukraine. The PMC cannot admit Russia is the dominant power on the European continent now, so it is doing whatever it can, wherever it can, to weaken Russia in order to avoid accepting this new reality. This includes supporting Salafi jihadist proxy armies in Syria and using US funded NGO’s to back a coup against a democratically elected government in Georgia, which thankfully, has failed.

The Jihadists currently in control of Syria are a couple name changes away from Al Qaeda and the Islamic State (IS). Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) which the PMC tells us are pro-democracy rebels are actually formerly Nusra Front, which is an Al Qaeda offshoot, or former Islamic State fighters, as the many ISIS patches seen on their kit as they advanced in Syria shows.

Currently the systemic slaughter of Alawites, Christians, and any other Sunnis still left from the SAA (Syrian Arab Army) who do not share HTS/ISIS radical religious beliefs or could present a threat to them is being conducted. The teams are not filming these executions with their phones so everyone in the west who thinks HTS holds liberal democratic ideals in their heart since they talk about democracy and do forced interviews of Christians will not see the reality.

For the PMC, the only thing that matters is maintaining power and not having to admit they are wrong. To this end, Syria will be carved up between Israel and Turkey, no doubt US President will do an art of the deal for the northeast part of Syria which will truly fuck over the Kurds and end up with the 60,000 Islamic State prisoners in those two camps which the Kurds guard strengthening the hell that will become Syria.

I laughed seeing the PMC hired a media consultant for al-Sharaa, coaching him to throw in the word diversity so everyone in the west could rejoice seeing his CNN interview shortly after HTS captured Aleppo. He was even dressed like Zelensky, in the same button up olive green shirt, so we could all correctly identify him as a pro-democracy freedom fighter without having to do any homework. Totally ridiculous, but for the PMC, perception is reality for them. If they dress a Jihadist like Zelensky then of course it is true HTS is pro-democracy and we are not partnering with ISIS, who we sent an entire generation to fight against.

Nothing Left To Fight For

The stunning collapse of the SAA, with soldiers suffering from inflation and low morale as their commanders were bought off, is a warning that prior performance is not an indication of future success and to guard against people not feeling like they have a reason to fight. The Syrian Army, which fought hard for over a decade, gave up the country due to some combination of factors in two weeks and millions will pay the price.

In all of the exhausting noise about Syria, no one has been able to explain to me what is worth fighting for if we’re now making ISIS our ally. I will never be disloyal, but this Rules Based Order doesn’t seem that liberal or democratic. After the last couple years, it feels more about maintaining control of the world at all costs, no matter the costs. Making ISIS our ally, which so many of us gave years, blood, and friends to fight against is just the final straw. When our leaders make ISIS our ally, what are you giving us to fight for?

My close friends and I all think alike in this regard. All we want to do after the last few years is retire, move overseas outside the US and EU, be in a village by the sea tending our own garden and never concern ourselves with the goings on in Constantinople.

The PMC putting us on the same side as ISIS should be a point to cause serious self-reflection on the results of their actions. I don’t think that is going to happen though, all I see is the PMC continuing to label anyone who disagrees with them an enemy of democracy and a target for regime change. The truth is the world is better off with less US influence, not more. Unfortunately for the entire world, I don’t think the western PMC is going to suddenly become self-reflective and start judging their beliefs and actions by the results we all see in the world around us, much less take other sovereign’s concerns seriously.

Beyond Syria

I recently listened to AEW Mason’s excellent book, The Four Feathers - the unabridged 1902 version is the only version for modern aristocrats - the storytelling is outstanding. I worked in Sudan over a century after events in the book, yet it felt familiar. Khartoum today is back to being as dangerous for a westerner as it was in the 1880s when Feversham snuck in after General Gordon was murdered in the defense of Khartoum and the city fell to the Mahdists. Towards the end of the book, Feversham’s father, a veteran of the Crimean War in the 1850’s remarks how the British Empire is going to hell and the new leadership of the army doesn’t know what the hell they are doing. That made me chuckle, and I thought nothing ever changes, perhaps this is the way it has always been.

Then I realized actually, the British empire was at it’s zenith in the 1890s and perhaps the retired General did know what he was talking about. In less than three decades from the General’s remarks the British Empire and Europe would be shattered by World War I, leaders would be incapable of finding a way to recover as detailed in the outstanding book, Lords of Finance: The Bankers Who Broke the World, and the British Empire would stumble into continued hostilities in World War II, emerging with a bitter victory. What was a world spanning empire in 1890, with an unmatched navy would have no navy left and be reduced to just another country, of no higher standing in the new American led Rules Based Order (RBO) than Egypt as the Suez Crisis would prove. The empire was slowly dismantled as the US-led RBO encouraged liberal democracies to form around the globe - unless you were Iran - until humiliatingly, in 1976 Britain had to get bailed out by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

I’ve heard far more successful investors than myself say to not worry about the macro, to focus on the business. While for the last 70 years in US markets that was the right answer, I can’t help but think that is a privileged position to be in. Telling a German real estate investor in Dresden in the 1930s to not worry about the macro would have been terrible advice. Same for others in other countries at various points in time. Is this a similar point in time? Or will this be yet another data point that didn’t matter as the PMC continues to rule. I have no idea, no one does.

So what am I going to do? I’ve had a hard time writing the December letter and finishing this piece. If anything this makes me want to buy gold and start running my own bitcoin node and buy more bitcoin when the MVRV is flashing price is below realized price as a fuck you to the PMC. Syria has showed me they hate my friends and I, and I hate them back. Meanwhile buying a house has showed me while all these things are happening in the world, loans are underwritten with the assumption that counterparty and liquidity risk are not real risks in the US financial system. I think those are real risks, so I want to continue to have liquidity that is not someone else’s liability now more than ever.

But I am trying to be less naive as I get older and fully realize that it is entirely possible the PMC goes right on ruling, being able to slowly take debt/GDP down, since most people say they want freedom but actually want safety, comfort, and a soft life. So I also fully realize that having dollar liquidity by building a bond ladder and a permanent portfolio makes sense.

Overall the point for me after Syria is I want to be in a position where I live a great life, am prepared for either outcome, and any time I hear the PMC or their apologists tell me why I need to care or defend the RBO I can just smile and silently think, “go fuck yourself.”

See you out there, Radigan